Almost a week after Romney and Obama’s first face/off, the polls indicate that several swing state polls, as well as national polls, have swung in Romney’s direction after his strong debate performance. He leads in a Pew poll 49%-45% against President Obama, and he has narrowed the president’s lead in in several swing states, including Ohio and Iowa, and has jumped ahead of the president in Florida and North Carolina. 

However, several dynamics are running against the former Massachusetts governor. Early voting has already started in several swing states, including Ohio and Iowa. Voter registration ended today in almost two dozen states. Romney’s ground game is severely diminished by the Obama ground game, especially in Ohio, where the president has 3:1 Ohio campaign offices. 

This does not mean, however, that President Obama can afford to take any chances. The debate revealed a weakness in Obama (who has never excelled at debates) and demonstrated that Romney could be a viable and acceptable alternative to the president. If Romney can maintain the momentum of his debate win into the last four weeks of the campaign, he can fundamentally alter the trajectory of the race. Recent polls have shown Obama’s lead in non-swing states, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, are narrow, within 2-4 points of Romney’s position. The common consensus is is that these are traditionally Democratic states, but if Obama loses grip on either of those, his path to 270 to win the presidency narrows. 

In the end, the fundamentals favor the president. His path to 270 is easier than Romney’s, he has a strong ground game, and he is personally liked by a majority of Americans. In Romney’s favor is his strong debate performance, a weak economy, and increased enthusiasm among Republicans. This is a race either man can win, and anything can happen in the remaining weeks. Neither man can afford to turn off the light yet.